Well as pretty much everyone expected, Ireland said No to the ratiffication of the Lisbon treaty. Being in favour of the treaty, I’m a bit disappointed by this, but that’s democracy… At least Ireland asked its people for their opinion.
I would have loved to give my opinion on the subject too but my home country chose not to ask its citizens but instead asked its parliament (elected by the people) what they thought, assuming that since the representatives of the nation had been elected by the people they represent the opinion of the people. Clearly not always the case as Ireland just proved.
So what’s the way forward from here? For starters, the treaty will not enter into effect on the 1st of January 2009 since at least one of the signatories did not ratify it. The Nice treaty rules will stay in force until a new treaty is signed.
Will the union’s 27 members have to renegotiate the whole thing again? Probably not as it takes too much time to go through a whole treaty negotiation. What I think will happen is that Ireland will negotiate certain opt-outs from the Lisbon treaty in order to appease some of the concerns that were raised during the referendum campaign and resubmit the revised treaty to the Irish electorate.
Now there’s the tricky part, a survey showed that the main contention points raised during the campaign weren’t the dominant reasons why Irland voted no. Surprised? A bit but not that much. The real reason, it appears, is that the Irish population said no to its politicians and the bureaucrats everywhere. This is quite interesting and will be the main hurdle to overcome if a second referendum on the issue is to be had.
How can the “establishment” ensure that the citizens approve of the treaty? By engaging directly with them! Not in forums and televised debates, but by talking to people in the street, knocking on their doors, taking the time to explain the importance of the treaty and answer any concerns people may have. This takes time, a lot more time than the political parties allowed for before this referendum. The no side did that though! They were out there since before Christmas telling people to vote no. And that’s what won it in the end.
There are a number of questions people still need to answer:
- Why did the “yes” camp wait so long to come out in force to promote the Lisbon treaty?
- Why did the “yes” camp allow the “no” camp nearly six months of free reign?
- How did the “no” camp’s Libertas group finance its operations and who gave them those finances?
The later one is of particular interest as the main figures of the organisation work for an American contracting company. Although they assure us that they followed the letter of the law in their sourcing of finances it seems extraordinary that a group that was unknown a year ago managed to have the largest campaign budget. In fact more than all the other participants put together! Let’s hope it wasn’t from foreign sources as this would mean they broke the law.
Then again maybe this would be a way around it. If the “winning” side was financed from outside of the state, then the validity of the referendum could be questionned and an unmodified treaty re-submitted to the Irish electorate. Now there’s a thought…
The next few months will be interesting. The whole thing will in a sense re-kindle the Irish’s interest in European affairs.
